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From the flapping of a butterfly’s wings to Cyberwar, the step is short

Marzio Nava

Conventional wars, hybrid conflicts, and both regional and international crises have far-reaching impacts on the global economy. No matter where they occur, every situation, large or small, affects us directly. In an increasingly interconnected world, events set off a chain reaction with inevitable consequences.

Cybersecurity, in particular, has emerged as a critical concern for individuals, companies, and states alike. There are no boundaries that can protect us; we are all vulnerable. Cyberattacks have become a modern weak spot, with data theft representing the highest stakes. The fraudulent and criminal acquisition of data has become a high-stakes target. In some cases, hackers aim to disrupt infrastructure and cause damage; in others, they demand ransom. There are also instances where personal data is stolen and exploited for financial or strategic gain.

Dossiering and industrial espionage are now part of daily reality, and cyberwar is an increasingly tangible threat. The banking, energy, and healthcare sectors are among the most frequently targeted, where safeguarding sensitive data requires rigorous defences. On September 2, 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reportedly experienced an act of sabotage during a series of official visits to Eastern European countries. While flying over Bulgaria, the cockpit dashboard of her plane malfunctioned under suspicious circumstances, according to NATO Secretary-General, Mark Rutte. Thanks to the skill of the pilots and support from Bulgarian aircraft, the incident was contained without escalation. Such events are neither unprecedented nor likely to be the last.

Italy, for instance, recorded 346 cyber and sabotage incidents targeting sensitive objectives in the first half of 2025, a 98% increase over the previous year. Some cyber events have gone down in history, and a few have been particularly dramatic. On April 27, 2007, Estonia suffered a series of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, which temporarily disrupted online services. The assaults were widely seen as a response to the Estonian authorities’ decision to relocate the ‘Bronze Soldier,’ a monument honouring Soviet soldiers who helped drive out the Nazis, from the centre of Tallinn to a city cemetery. Russians are unquestionably sensitive to certain historical events, and this has played a key role in the reaction. In response, NATO established the Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence in 2008, creating guidelines that laid the groundwork for what could evolve into international cyber warfare law.

Today, cyberattacks can indeed be considered acts of war. More recently, in February 2021, a hacker infiltrated the computers of the Oldsmar, Florida, water treatment plant near Tampa. Using TeamViewer credentials (a remote connectivity platform that allows users to access and control computers and mobile devices from anywhere in the world), the attacker attempted to raise sodium hydroxide levels, a chemical used to disinfect water, to potentially dangerous concentrations, putting approximately 15.000 residents at risk. The attempt was thwarted when an operator noticed the anomaly and intervened promptly, averting a potential public health crisis.

After careful discussion, we can confidently affirm the insight of American mathematician Edward Lorenz, who in 1972 posed a thought-provoking question: “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?”

DETERGO MAGAZINE # OCTOBER 2025

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From the flapping of a butterfly’s wings to Cyberwar, the step is short